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Publications
Afghanistan In Review November 20-December 8, 2021
December 13, 2021 - ISW Press
The Taliban central leadership continues to consolidate its power within Afghanistan by asserting control over the judicial system, replacing civil servants with Taliban loyalists, expelling some Taliban fighters, and meeting with Shi’a community leaders. The Taliban leadership will continue to appoint Taliban members throughout the Afghan bureaucracy in order to exert control over the state and reward its fighters and commanders. The Taliban’s work with Shi’a communities may run into conflict in the future, however, as the Taliban has historically persecuted Shi’a communities in Afghanistan and some hardline elements of the Taliban may not support this change in policy.
Putin's Likely Courses of Action in Ukraine - Part 2
December 11, 2021 - ISW Press
Russian President Vladimir Putin is amassing a large force near the Ukrainian border and reportedly has a military plan to invade and conquer most of unoccupied Ukraine. Western leaders are rightly taking the threat of such an invasion very seriously, and we cannot dismiss the possibility that Putin will order his military to execute it. However, the close look at what such an invasion would entail presented in this report and the risks and costs Putin would have to accept in ordering it leads us to forecast that he is very unlikely to launch an invasion of unoccupied Ukraine this winter. Putin is much more likely to send Russian forces into Belarus and possibly overtly into Russian-occupied Donbas. He might launch a limited incursion into unoccupied southeastern Ukraine that falls short of a full-scale invasion.
Putin's Likely Course of Action in Ukraine - Part 1
December 10, 2021 - ISW Press
Russian President Vladimir Putin is amassing a military force on and near Ukraine’s borders large enough to conduct a full-scale invasion. Western intelligence agencies have reportedly intercepted Russian military plans to do so by early February. Visible Russian military activities and these plans so clearly support preparations for an invasion that it seems obvious that Putin really might invade if his demands are not met.
Turkey in Review: November 19-December 6, 2021
December 9, 2021 - ISW Press
Turkey Seeks to Mend Ties with the United Arab Emirates: Turkey and the United Arab Emirates normalized bilateral relations after a decade of tensions. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and United Arab Emirates (UAE) Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ) met for the first time since 2012 in Ankara, Turkey, on November 24, 2021. Turkish and Emirati officials signed several cooperation agreements, including agreements to facilitate new Emirati investments into Turkey’s weakening economy. The Erdogan-MBZ meeting followed months of high-level engagements since Emirati Foreign Minister Anwar Gargash expressed interest in improving relations with Ankara in January 2021. Turkey and the UAE’s opposing interests in Libya, Syria, and the eastern Mediterranean have strained their relations over the past decade, as has Turkey’s cultivation of close ties with rival Qatar.
Iran’s Axis of Resistance in Review, November 8 – December 6
December 8, 2021 - ISW Press
Saudi Arabia’s accelerating pressure campaign against the Lebanese government threatens to weaken Lebanese Hezbollah’s voter support and influence within the country’s governing coalition prior to the 2022 election. An unfavorable election outcome for Lebanese Hezbollah could fragment the March 8 Alliance political coalition it controls. In addition to buttressing domestic support and consolidating control over the March 8 Alliance, Lebanese Hezbollah may pursue kinetic operations against Saudi targets to erode Riyadh’s resolve.
Nord Stream 2 Poses a Long-Term National Security Challenge for the US and Its Allies
December 5, 2021 - ISW Press
Russian President Vladimir Putin is pressuring Ukraine and the West on multiple fronts. He has set conditions to conduct military operations against Ukraine on a large scale. He is exploiting Russia’s leverage on Europe’s energy supplies and enabling Belarusian escalation against Poland, a NATO country. These efforts are parts of a deliberate campaign supporting specific demands Putin is making of the West, including permanently abjuring further enlargement of NATO and military support to Ukraine. He may not launch the invasion he has prepared, but he is determined to use its threat along with his other tools of leverage to compel the West’s formal recognition of Russia’s suzerainty over the former Soviet states. Nord Stream 2 is part of these efforts and always has been. It is a threat to Europe’s security and to Ukraine’s independence. This pipeline will change the geopolitical landscape in Europe for years to come. It is worth renewing the fight to prevent Nord Stream 2 from starting operations.
Russia in Review: November 10 – November 30, 2021
December 3, 2021 - ISW Press
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s campaign to coerce the European Union (EU) to repeal sanctions has further geopolitically isolated Belarus and expanded opportunities for Russia to deploy forces into Belarus to threaten Ukraine and NATO. Russia and Belarus set conditions throughout November to expand military cooperation on the Belarus-Ukrainian border under the guise of protecting the Kremlin-dominated Union State from claimed NATO threats. Lukashenko continues to conduct a campaign of migrant trafficking despite framing EU states as responsible for the crisis by refusing to accept migrants. US allies neighboring Belarus—including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine—have increased security measures on the Belarusian border throughout November.