ISW-CTP Geopolitical Risk Assessments: April-July 2020

America’s national security is threatened by the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences, which present new opportunities for US adversaries, including Russia, China, and Iran, to gain political and military advantage. The second- and third-order effects of the pandemic, including the severe global economic downturn, have also accelerated pre-existing trends toward disorder and state failure that threaten American interests.

The challenges are large, but the US still has opportunities to compete effectively while securing its vital interests. American leaders must not lose sight of what is at stake abroad even as they rightly address the challenges here at home. Where possible, the US must continue to deny strategic victories to our adversaries while standing firm with our allies. 

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and our research partners at the Critical Threats Project (CTP) of the American Enterprise Institute launched an exclusive, high-level analytic product line in April to provide donors and key supporters with timely information regarding how the national security landscape is evolving during the COVID-19 pandemic. This weekly product includes unique insights on key global developments and their implications from ISW’s National Security Fellow Jennifer Cafarella and ISW and CTP analysts.

ISW and CTP are making the first 15 issues available online. Key themes covered include:

• The growing US – China conflict creating serious new escalation risks
• The Mediterranean becoming a nexus theater, where the Syrian and Libyan wars are increasingly overlapping
• The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily disrupting Russia’s operations abroad, but with Russian President Vladimir Putin beginning to recover by July
• Salafi – jihadist groups gaining even more momentum in Africa and the Middle East
• International and domestic institutions that provide resilience in the West eroding under continued pressure from Russia, China, and Iran
• Russia, China, and Iran implementing new authoritarian tools of social control under the pretext of COVID-19 responses
• The US gaining a new opportunity to advance its interests in Iraq in partnership with Iraq’s new Prime Minister, Mustafa al Kadhimi
• State collapse deepening in Syria, where the regime is experiencing unprecedented internal friction due to a collapse of the Syrian economy

While the world has been preoccupied by COVID-19, the dedicated ISW-CTP Teams have remained at their posts to monitor, track, analyze, and disseminate important developments abroad as we seek advance an international order that favors American interests, supports key US allies, and reinforces our core civic and free market values. 

We are respected for our integrity. Since we do not take government funding, we rely on the generous sacrificial support of private citizens across the country who embrace their unique opportunity to help defend our nation. They believe in investing in the essential work ISW-CTP does to advance our national security.

We are committed to meeting the increasing demand for independent, robust analysis as the threat environment evolves; we deeply appreciate your consideration of partnering with us to expand our outsized impact on US national security.

For further ways to get involved, including how to gain access to this exclusive high-level analytic product line, please contact the ISW Development Department at (202) 293-5550 EXT. 209 or email us at [email protected] or please contact the external relations team at [email protected].

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