Publications

Iran Update, January 21, 2025

January 21, 2025 - ISW Press

Hamas coordinated the distribution of aid and facilitated the movement of Gazans to the northern Gaza Strip, which demonstrates that Hamas retains some degree of governing authority after 15 months of war. The Associated Press reported that Hamas has patrolled aid convoy routes, coordinated the distribution of humanitarian aid, and monitored the return of Gazans to Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip after the ceasefire went into effect. Some Gazans began to return from IDF-designated humanitarian zones to the northern Gaza Strip on January 19, and the IDF announced on January 21 that it would soon allow Gazans to return from the southern Gaza Strip to the northern Gaza Strip.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 21, 2025

January 21, 2025 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Russian defense industrial enterprises and oil refineries in Russia on the night of January 20 to 21 as part of an ongoing strike series aimed at degrading Russian military capacity. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian Special Operation Forces (SSO) elements and other Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against Rosneft's Lisinskaya Oil Refinery in Voronezh Oblast for the second time this week following successful strikes on the night of January 15 to 16. The January 20 to 21 strike caused a fire at fuel and lubricant tanks, and the Ukrainian General Staff noted that the oil refinery supplies the Russian military.

Iran Update, January 20, 2025

January 20, 2025 - ISW Press

Hamas announced that the next round of hostage releases will occur on January 26. Hamas released three female Israeli hostages on the first day of the ceasefire on January 19. Israel released 90 Palestinian prisoners into the West Bank in exchange.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 20, 2025

January 20, 2025 - ISW Press

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on January 20 that Russian forces suffered more than 434,000 casualties in 2024 — 150,000 of which were personnel killed in action. Syrskyi stated on December 30, 2024, that Russian forces suffered 427,000 casualties in 2024, and Syrskyi's January 20 number likely reflects additional losses that Russian forces incurred in the final days of 2024.

Iran Update, January 19, 2025

January 19, 2025 - ISW Press

The IDF withdrew from areas in the northern and southern Gaza Strip on January 19. Gazans began to return to the northern Gaza Strip from IDF-designated humanitarian zones in the southern and central Gaza Strip amid IDF withdrawal from these areas on January 19.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 19, 2025

January 19, 2025 - ISW Press

The Ukrainian General Staff reported on January 18 that Russian forces used ammunition equipped with chemical agents banned by the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) 434 times in Ukraine in December 2024, contributing to a total of 5,389 documented cases since February 2023. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kupyansk, Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces recently recaptured lost positions near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. Russian volunteer military detachments continue efforts to boost manpower by recruiting women into the Russian Armed Forces.

Iran Update, January 18, 2025

January 18, 2025 - ISW Press

The Israeli government approved the Israel-Hamas ceasefire-hostage deal on January 18. The ceasefire will go into effect at 1:30AM ET on January 19 and the release of Israeli hostages will start at 9:30AM ET on January 19. Unspecified security sources cited by Israeli Army Radio stated that Israel estimates that 25 out of the 33 hostages Hamas will release in the first phase of the deal are alive. Hamas is expected to release three hostages on January 19 and release the other 30 hostages every subsequent Saturday until March 1.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 18, 2025

January 18, 2025 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces struck two Russian oil depots in Kaluga and Tula oblasts on the night of January 17 to 18. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on January 18 that Ukrainian Special Operation Forces (SSO) units and other Ukrainian forces struck an oil depot of the Kaluganeftprodukt joint-stock company (JSC) near Lyudinovo, Kaluga Oblast, causing a fire at the facility on the night of January 17 to 18. Kaluga Oblast Governor Vladislav Shapsha claimed on January 17 and 18 that a drone strike caused a fire at an unspecified industrial enterprise in Lyudinovo, Kaluga Oblast, and later added that Russian forces downed seven drones over the region.[2] Russian sources posted footage purportedly showing the fire at the oil depot.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 17, 2025

January 17, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the Russia-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement on January 17.

Iran Update, January 17, 2025

January 17, 2025 - ISW Press

The Israeli security cabinet approved the Israel-Hamas ceasefire-hostage deal on January 17. Israel’s full cabinet began deliberating on the deal on January 17 but has not released a decision on it as of the time of this writing.

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