Publications

Iran Update, December 21, 2024

December 21, 2024 - ISW Press

US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf described Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al Shara as “pragmatic” but did not specify what concrete steps Shara or the HTS-led interim government will take to combat terrorism or ensure minority rights. Leaf stated that Shara gave ”moderate” statements on issues, including women's rights and protection for minorities, when they met in Damascus on December 20. Leaf confirmed that the United States will no longer pursue the 10-million-dollar Rewards for Justice bounty on Shara due to his commitment to ensuring terrorist groups inside Syria pose no threat to the United States or its regional partners.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 21, 2024

December 21, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to expand Russia's network of military-patriotic education programs for youth in Russia and occupied Ukraine ahead of the Kremlin's upcoming "Year of the Defender of the Fatherland" in 2025. Putin approved a list of four instructions for the Russian government on December 20, which include orders to: establish and develop a network of "military-sports camps" to promote enlisting in the military among young people; expand the Kremlin's "Roads of Victory" program; create an online platform to organize military-patriotic education programing for Russian youth; and transfer one children's "health camp" to year-round operations.

Iran Update, December 20, 2024

December 20, 2024 - ISW Press

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed readiness to help Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) form a new political system in Syria.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 20, 2024

December 20, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian ballistic missile strikes damaged several embassies in central Kyiv on the morning of December 20.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, December 20, 2024

December 20, 2024 - ISW Press

Guam police apprehended seven People's Republic of China (PRC) nationals attempting to enter the island illegally on December 10 and 11 during a US missile interceptor test off the island. The PRC nationals arrived by the same boat from Saipan in the Northern Mariana Islands, which have a 90-day visa-exemption policy. The Guam Customs and Quarantine Agency stated in a press release that one of the three detainees arrested on December 10 had a standing warrant for her arrest and was found illegally entering the vicinity of a US military installation.

Iran Update, December 19, 2024

December 19, 2024 - ISW Press

Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) are attempting to coerce the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to disarm and integrate into the HTS-led armed forces by threatening the SDF with a full-scale assault against SDF-held areas. Turkey massed forces on the Turkey-Syria border, dismantled the Kobani-Turkey border wall, and increased drone attacks in the Manbij countryside ahead of a potential Turkish invasion into Syria. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that Turkey will not need to intervene in Syria if HTS addresses its concerns with the SDF “properly.”

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 19, 2024

December 19, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he should have violated the ceasefire he had imposed on Ukraine in 2014 by launching a full-scale invasion even earlier when asked to reflect on his 2022 decision to attack. Putin responded to a media question during his annual Direct Line televised press conference on December 19 on whether he would change his decision to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine if he had it to do over again, stating that he should have made this decision earlier. Putin added that Russia should have systematically prepared ahead of the full-scale invasion and falsely claimed that Russia "spontaneously" invaded Ukraine in 2022 after Ukraine "directly" announced that it would not abide by the Minsk II Accords.

Africa File, December 19, 2024

December 19, 2024 - ISW Press

Russia is reinforcing its positions in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa as it continues to consolidate in and withdraw some of its forces from Syria.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 18, 2024

December 18, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a chemical plant in Rostov Oblast on December 18. Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko reported that unspecified actors struck the Kamensky Chemical Plant and that the plant produces rocket fuel, explosives, and ammunition components and disposes of spent rocket systems.

Iran Update, December 18, 2024

December 18, 2024 - ISW Press

Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) is calling for a unified Syrian state without federal regions, which aligns with Turkey's objective of destroying the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and constitutes an implicit call by HTS to disarm the SDF.

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