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ISIS is targeting early signs of resistance in predominantly Sunni areas in northern Diyala and western Kirkuk, an area with strong tribal presence and historic presence of ISIS competitors like JRTN and Ansar al-Islam.

The assassination of Hassan Aboud, the leader of hardline Salafist Ahrar al-Sham and a former associate of al-Qaeda representative Abu Khalid al-Suri, is likely to have major repercussions for the capacity of rebels to coordinate their efforts across fronts.

PREPARATION: ISIS was setting the conditions for uncontested rule of Raqqa since the summer of 2013, when it detonated VBIEDs against rebel headquarters, kidnapped rebel commanders, and detained civilian activists. In Mosul, ISIS undermined government institutions with large scale racketeering operations and carried out targeted assassinations against key civilian and military leaders. By the time ISIS took full military control of Raqqa in January 2014 and Mosul in June 2014, an organized opposition to ISIS did not exist.

ISIS continues to test the security measures of the Iraqi Security Forces in Southern Iraq.

Control of the urban terrain in Syria is parceled among a number of armed groups, including the Syrian regime, opposition groups including Jabhat al-Nusra (JN), and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS).

ISW has updated its ISIS Sanctuary map in advance of President Obama’s speech on a strategy to confront ISIS.  This map, covering both Iraq and Syria, shows the extent of ISIS zones of control, attack, and support throughout both countries.

The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is intent on regaining momentum. The Dhuluiyah fight will be a bellwether event for the Iraqi Sunni tribes in Salah ad-Din and for ISIS as well.

The Haditha operation represents a turning point in the counter-ISIS campaign. ISIS is now facing two significant counter-offensives in western and northern Iraq.