Iran Crisis Update, November 9

Nov 9, 2022 - ISW Press
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Nicholas Carl, Johanna Moore, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan

November 9, 5:00 pm ET

The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.

Iran and its proxies may attack US positions in Iraq and Syria in retaliation for an Israeli drone strike on an Iranian convoy in eastern Syria on November 8. The Israeli strike killed at least 10 individuals including an unknown number of Iranians, according to the Wall Street Journal.[1] The convoy was reportedly transporting missiles, munitions, and oil into Syria from Iraq. Media affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and a senior official from Iranian proxy Kataib Hezbollah blamed the attack on the US and Israel.[2]

Iran has increasingly attacked US positions in Iraq and Syria as part of its cycle of escalation with Israel over the past year. A senior IRGC commander, Major General Gholam Ali Rashid, stated in December 2021 that the regime would attack “all centers, bases, routes, and spaces used as sources or routes for [Israeli] aggression,” holding the US accountable for potential Israeli attacks.[3]

Artesh Ground Forces Commander Brigadier General Kiomars Heydari emphasized that the regime has the capacity to use more extreme force against protesters on November 9.[4] Heydari referred to protesters as “flies” and stated that “they will have no place in the country” if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei orders a more brutal crackdown. Iranian leaders have increasingly tasked the Artesh Ground Forces with some internal security missions, such as guarding sensitive facilities and locations to relieve other security forces, during protests in recent years.[5]

The potential involvement of the Artesh in protest suppression, even in a limited capacity, would provide Iranian authorities additional assets to quash internal unrest.[6] The Artesh Ground Forces has more than twice as many service members as the IRGC Ground Forces does, operates the bulk of the country’s helicopter and tank arsenals, and has concentrated many of its units in border areas.[7] These qualities, combined with its use to relieve other security forces, make the Artesh a powerful instrument for protest suppression, particularly in the border regions where significant protest activity has been concentrated.

Raisi administration officials are threatening citizens who provide information to anti-regime outlet Iran International to deter protesters from speaking to it about the protests and regime crackdown. Culture and Islamic Guidance Minister Mehdi Esmaili referred to Iran International as “terrorist media” and stated that the regime will punish individuals cooperating with it on November 9.[8] Intelligence and Security Minister Esmail Khatib stated that the regime views communicating with Iran International as cooperating with terrorists and threatening national security on November 8, as CTP previously reported.[9]

Key Takeaways

  • Iran and its proxies may attack US positions in Iraq and Syria in retaliation for an Israeli drone strike on an Iranian convoy in eastern Syria.
  • Artesh Ground Forces Commander Brigadier General Kiomars Heydari emphasized that the regime has the capacity to use more extreme force against protesters.
  • Raisi administration officials are threatening citizens who provide information to anti-regime outlet Iran International to deter protesters from speaking to it about the protests and regime crackdown.
  • At least 19 protests took place in 15 cities across 11 provinces.
  • An unidentified individual drove a car into a group of security personnel and killed a Basij member in Bandar-e Kia Shahr, Gilan Province.
  • Law Enforcement Commander Brigadier General Hossein Ashtari reappointed Brigadier General Mohammad Ghanbari as LEC Sistan and Baluchistan provincial commander.

Anti-Regime Protests

At least 19 protests took place in 15 cities across 11 provinces on November 9. CTP assesses with moderate to high confidence that protests occurred in the locations below.

Note: CTP is using asterisks to denote protests that included mourners commemorating killed protesters.

Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province (population: approximately 1,599,000)

  • 25-50 Tabriz University of Art students protested on campus and chanted “the blood in our veins is the food of our leader.” Protesters reportedly began the demonstration by removing the gender separation wall in the university cafeteria.[10]

Esfahan City, Esfahan Province (population: approximately 1,961,000)

  • One or two dozen possibly high school-age protesters marched through an Esfahan street and chanted “freedom, freedom, freedom.”[11]

*Shiraz, Fars Province (population: approximately 1,556,572)

  • Several dozen protesters marched through Shiraz streets and chanted anti-regime slogans. The protesters reportedly held the demonstrations to commemorate protesters killed by regime security forces during the September 30 Zahedan massacre.[12]
  • One or two dozen Shiraz Chamran University students protested on campus and chanted “Khamenei is a murderer.”[13]

Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province (population: approximately 526,648)

  • 25-50 protesters marched through Bandar Abbas streets and chanted anti-regime slogans.[14]

Kermanshah City, Kermanshah Province (population: approximately 946,681)

  • An undetermined number of protesters chanted “death to Khamenei” and other anti-regime slogans on a Kermanshah street.[15]

Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province (population: approximately 3,001,184)

  • One or two dozen possibly high school-age protesters marched through Mashhad streets with anti-regime banners and chanted anti-regime slogans.[16]

Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province (population: approximately 414,069)

  • An undetermined number of protesters set fires and reportedly established obstacles with debris in Sanandaj’s Nayser and Hassan Abad neighborhoods. Footage from social media shows regime security forces watching the protesters but not attempting to disrupt or arrest them.[17]

Saghez, Kurdistan Province (population: approximately 165,258)

  • Several dozen protesters set fires and established obstacles with debris on a Saghez street. Footage from social media shows smoke originating beyond where protesters set tires on fire, suggesting regime security forces possibly used tear gas.[18]

*Tehran City, Tehran Province (population: approximately 8,700,000)

  • One or two dozen Pars University of Art and Architecture students protested on campus and chanted anti-regime slogans. The students reportedly held the demonstration to commemorate protesters killed by regime security forces during the September 30 Zahedan massacre.[19]
  • Several dozen University of Science and Culture students protested on campus and chanted “we don’t have bread, we don’t have a house, and the hijab is the [regime’s] excuse.” The students reportedly held the demonstration to commemorate protesters killed by regime security forces during the September 30 Zahedan massacre.[20]
  • 25-50 protesters set fires and established obstacles with debris in Tehran streets. Protesters chanted “we don’t want spectators, join us” and other anti-regime slogans. Protesters reportedly returned to the streets after security forces dispersed the initial wave of evening demonstrations.[21]

*Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province (population: approximately 168,393)

  • A dozen protesters set a fire on a Mahabad street and chanted “death to the dictator.”[22]
  • At least 100 protesters marched through Mahabad streets to mourn regime security forces killing protest martyr Faiq Mam Ghadri in Ourmia. Protesters held evening demonstrations in front of Mam Ghadri’s house and chanted anti-regime slogans. Iranian social media accounts claimed more than 1,000 protesters attended to the evening demonstration.[23]

CTP assesses with low confidence that protests occurred in the locations below.

Shahr-e Kord, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province (population: approximately 190,441)

  •  An undetermined number of protesters marched through a Shahr-e Kord street and chanted anti-regime slogans.[24]

Ghadarijan, Esfahan Province (population: approximately 34,226)

  • An undetermined number of protesters reportedly clashed with regime security forces in Ghadarijan streets. Footage from social media shows several explosions occurring along a roundabout. The explosions are possibly from regime security forces throwing flashbang grenades.[25]

Rasht, Gilan Province (population: approximately 679,995)

  • One or two dozen possibly high school-age protesters demonstrated on a Rasht streetcorner.[26]

Ghorveh, Kurdistan Province (population: approximately 78,276)

  • An undetermined number of high school students marched through a Ghorveh street and chanted “we don’t want spectators, join us.”[27]

Boukan, West Azerbaijan Province (population: approximately 193,501)

  • An undetermined number of protesters set fires and established obstacles with debris on a Boukan street.[28]

An unidentified individual drove a car into a group of security personnel and killed a Basij member in Bandar-e Kia Shahr, Gilan Province on November 8.[29] Around 44 security personnel have died in the protests since they began on September 16.

Social media accounts reported on November 9 that unidentified gunmen in a vehicle fired an automatic weapon at IRGC members driving on the Zahedan-Bam road in Sistan and Baluchistan Province.[30] Anti-regime militancy has increased throughout the province in recent days, as CTP previously reported.[31] Violence between protesters and security forces will likely increase throughout the province on November 11, when protest organizations have called for countrywide demonstrations, especially in Zahedan.[32]

Law Enforcement Commander Brigadier General Hossein Ashtari reappointed Brigadier General Mohammad Ghanbari as Law Enforcement Command (LEC) Sistan and Baluchistan provincial commander on November 9.[33] Ghanbari had been the LEC Criminal Investigation Police Chief since September 2020 and was earlier the LEC Sistan and Baluchistan provincial commander.[34] The Sistan and Baluchistan Provincial Security Council fired the former commander, Brigadier General Ali Taheri, and 16 of his subordinates for negligence on October 27, as CTP previously reported.[35] Ashtari likely reappointed Ghanbari to the position to reinstall a trusted officer to manage the protests and growing anti-regime militancy in the province.

Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments

There was nothing significant to report today.

[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-hits-suspected-iran-weapons-convy-in-syria-with-airstrikes-11668010435

[2] www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1401/08/18/2801849; https://t.me/abualaskary/99  

[3] http://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1400/09/29/2629184/

[4] www.mehrnews dot com/news/5628440

[5] https://www.criticalthreats.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Whatever-it-takes-to-end-it.pdf

[6] https://www.criticalthreats.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Whatever-it-takes-to-end-it.pdf

[7] https://www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Images/News/Military_Powers_Publications/Iran_Military_Power_LR.pdf

[8] https://www.ilna dot ir/fa/tiny/news-1295972

[9] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-november-8

[10] https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1590358088284241921?s=20&t=qj8eK5yJH3FYmD9WG4yfSg; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590388454185058304?s=20&t=sGY1mpCqND_91XPc9ekXVg; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590388206230700034?s=20&t=BTcaRBl4M4qxx7hO9iHSIw

[11] https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1590415180806385664?s=20&t=S3lX4ADIQ-BP1HCaWIko-A

[12] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590382884166471680?s=20&t=1INvR5m6zxq-NsufKCs2hw;  https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1590378002055327744?s=20&t=svXGZYagAl0WdnyyA8xtQw

[13] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590293775435563008?s=20&t=N9F1FNJhlichVFksncrt7A

[14] https://twitter.com/chawshin_83/status/1590429841454923776?s=20&t=KZh9MlZuLMRFsz7TdlDhbA; https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1590387038129307649?s=20&t=1TSqptMAUb8Usph1yvSqOg; https://twitter.com/ManotoNews/status/1590432838863982592?s=20&t=uaE_34zJ8U60BFyCHXzDNA

[15] https://twitter.com/ManotoNews/status/1590442169512648705?s=20&t=J-Xs653xlNUeigSAndpE3A; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590427558067118080?s=20&t=QFC6iO8BEkVM6PRHl5kszA

[16] https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1590384501674631168?s=20&t=ml69t-rFanLjP6SbAYv28g; https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1590391664002367488?s=20&t=0qbFvycPvi9u7MksyE6qXg; https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1590413972993232896?s=20&t=uUFNQIeyeoaKcxfu0ksbZA

[17] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590226652256436225?s=20&t=EJu_8YwKxSDmKxJdz41u_Q; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590378460794408960?s=20&t=fmhnv911Lza1f271gOAVFg; https://twitter.com/HengawO/status/1590402983996837890?s=20&t=KZh9MlZuLMRFsz7TdlDhbA

[18] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590373192568143872?s=20&t=FZwC760bp4zN8-dgdlmx0A; https://twitter.com/Vahid/status/1590412224346329088?s=20&t=urdlumFJIVtVtYGjwDNJyA; https://twitter.com/Vahid/status/1590413892659793920?s=20&t=pLt5SurPRfSocg6Ong-Rng

[19] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590312331623292929?s=20&t=88PpuC1cRHLVupvuIQetUA; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590269301021626370?s=20&t=tQG9nj5ikireRyy0hvft6A

[20] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590291942474383360?s=20&t=iD5NJLgL6dYc2FwX6xmlOg; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590293056380899329?s=20&t=5YcoSKS1Q5QrPhfB7EXF8w; https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1590321610095226880?s=20&t=s3f9HA6Yr_rJGr3RUuLX7w

[21] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590371219550765056?s=20&t=LbIvKjUWnCDU5F71xLB1Vw; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590374752954494977?s=20&t=AtPTPyvnf1SpHW86WYmwXA; https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1590389581719142400?s=20&t=Kj_Jc3edhfMMhbgrdOknow; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590428454075633664?s=20&t=uaE_34zJ8U60BFyCHXzDNA; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590441105665167360?s=20&t=uaE_34zJ8U60BFyCHXzDNA

[22] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590356957054914560?s=20&t=H-_MAUDXySjxlfbRel0MmQ; https://twitter.com/HengawO/status/1590360610558341120?s=20&t=RjiwjM4NkaHj3X21pwIFzQ

[23] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590452214719315969?s=20&t=uaE_34zJ8U60BFyCHXzDNA; https://twitter.com/chawshin_83/status/1590456107998535680?s=20&t=-qGTO6rcrVUdzR-gcw-HZA; https://twitter.com/goliammar/status/1590474845586092032?s=20&t=-qGTO6rcrVUdzR-gcw-HZA; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590459274639339520?s=20&t=uaE_34zJ8U60BFyCHXzDNA

[24] https://twitter.com/allahbakhshii/status/1590377114339258368?s=20&t=ttfXC9N7LnrNgqykq9bE8w

[25] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590397377688788995?s=20&t=QojYfw1pz3FBAsN3bXMj2A

[26] https://twitter.com/ToukAlii/status/1590383089058213893?s=20&t=Zd8geWfcxlhVYs3eZVlLnw

[27] https://twitter.com/HengawO/status/1590302935040548866?s=20&t=HxYbzdbeuHFYWbanalCHlg

[28] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590371657654632450?s=20&t=gwSUKf3Oh1v8tZU0LohPjQ;

[29] http://fna dot ir/1seh5q

[30] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1590335114709733376?s=20&t=sfbNa8J5DPcAsVvMczSSxA; https://t.me/SEPAHCYBERY/55991

[31] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-november-6

[32] https://twitter.com/iran_javanan/status/1589705927699365890

[33] https://www.irna dot ir/news/84936939/

[34] https://www.ilna dot ir/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B9%DB%8C-5/973716-%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%82%D9%86%D8%A8%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%B1%D8%A6%DB%8C%D8%B3-%D9%BE%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%B3-%D8%A2%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%87%DB%8C-%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%A7-%D8%B4%D8%AF

[35] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-october-27