Ukraine Project

Russian Efforts to Centralize Drone Units May Degrade Russian Drone Operations

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) launched a coordinated effort in August 2024 to create a centralized separate branch for unmanned systems, likely to reorganize informal specialized drone detachments and centralize procurement of unmanned systems.... The Russian MoD’s centralization and restructuring efforts may degrade the effectiveness of the Russian drone operations and slow the Russian unmanned systems innovation cycle.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10, 2024

Russia's force posture around Syria continues to reflect the Kremlin's current cautious and indecisive response to the fall of Bashar al Assad's regime. Sentinel-2 satellite imagery from December 10 shows that Russian ships have still not returned to Syria's Port of Tartus and that the Russian Mediterranean Sea Flotilla is still in a holding pattern about eight to 15km away from Tartus. Open-source analyst MT Anderson identified four Russian ships within this radius as of December 10—the Admiral Golovko Gorshkov-class frigate, the Admiral Grigorovich Grigorovich-class frigate, the Novorossiysk Improved Kilo-class submarine, and the Vyazma Kaliningradneft-class oiler.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 7, 2024

Russian forces have resumed their offensive operations directly aimed at seizing Pokrovsk through a turning maneuver from the south after successfully widening their salient south and southeast of the town. Russian forces, including elements of the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]), began advancing further west and northwest of Selydove (southeast of Pokrovsk) along the Petrivka-Pustynka-Zhovte line south of Pokrovsk in late November 2024 after mainly focusing their offensive efforts on widening the salient south of Selydove and eliminating the Ukrainian pockets north and south of Kurakhove.

Likely Kremlin-Backed Election Interference Against Romania Threatens Bucharest's Continued Support for Ukraine and NATO

A pro-Russian and anti-Western candidate unexpectedly won the first round of the Romanian presidential election on November 24 due to likely Russian electoral interference and an effective large-scale TikTok influence campaign. Far-right Romanian political parties also made significant gains in the December 1 Romanian parliamentary elections. The Romanian Constitutional Court annulled the results of the first round of the presidential election on December 6 following the declassification of Romanian intelligence documents outlining — likely Russian — electoral interference.

Pages