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The Israel Defense Forces conducted an airstrike on an underground bunker in Beirut on October 3. The airstrike targeted a meeting of senior Hezbollah officials, including the presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah, Hashem Safi ed Din.
Chinese Coast Guard ships entered the restricted waters of Taiwan’s Kinmen islands twice on September 26. The PRC has normalized such incursions since February to erode Taiwan’s control of the waters and assert the PRC’s right to enforce its laws there.
Ukrainian forces struck a fuel storage facility in Anna, Voronezh Oblast on the night of October 3 to 4.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued advancing into southern Lebanon on October 3. Geolocated imagery indicates Israeli troop movements around the western axis of advance, specifically around Aitaroun and Yaroun.
The Russian offensive effort in eastern Ukraine that began in fall 2023 continues to produce gradual Russian tactical gains in specific sectors of the front, but operationally significant gains will likely continue to elude Russian forces. (ISW distinguishes between tactical gains, which are relevant at the tactical level of war in the near vicinity of the fighting, and operational gains, which are significant at the operational level of war and affect large sectors of the entire frontline.)
The SAF launched an offensive to relieve several besieged units in Khartoum. Iranian or Turkish drones likely helped set conditions for the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) offensive. The end of the rainy season in Sudan will likely increase fighting across the country in the coming months, which will compound the humanitarian crisis and continue to stall peace talks.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has advanced into southern Lebanon along at least two axes.
Ukraine continues efforts to expand domestic production of significant military equipment and maintain its drone advantage over Russia.
Iran launched a two-wave ballistic missile attack that targeted Israel from Iranian territory on October 1. Iran claimed to launch this attack in response to Israel’s killing of senior Axis of Resistance leaders including Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, and Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran launched approximately 180 ballistic missiles, including Emad and Ghadr ballistic missiles, from Iranian territory. Iran claimed to launch its domestically produced hypersonic medium-range “Fattah-2” ballistic missile for the first time in the October 1 attack.
Russian forces likely seized Vuhledar as of October 1 following a reported Ukrainian withdrawal from the settlement, though it is unclear if Russian forces will make rapid gains beyond Vuhledar in the immediate future. Geolocated footage published on September 30 and October 1 shows Russian forces planting Russian flags and freely operating in various parts of Vuhledar, and Russian milbloggers claimed on October 1 that Russian forces seized the settlement.