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The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the “Popular Mobilization” have continued their southward advance on key infrastructure in the Thar Thar region, northwest of Fallujah, as fierce clashes and ISIS continued SVBIED attacks north and east of the city.
The purpose of this intelligence forecast is to outline ISW’s assessment of the most likely and most dangerous courses of action for the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) to pursue during Ramadan (June 17, 2015 to July 17, 2015). For the past three years, ISIS has conducted major offensive operations during the Ramadan holy month, accomplishing its major annual campaign objectives. Its predecessor, al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), had historically also elevated violence in Iraq during Ramadan.
Russian-backed separatists launched an offensive maneuver on June 3 after several weeks of military buildup and an expansion from concentrated shelling to attacks across a coordinated front. Separatist combined arms forces stormed Ukrainian military positions bordering the western city districts of Donetsk. Ukraine’s military claimed to have repelled the initial maneuver.
ISIS attacks on Iraqi Army (IA) bases north and south of Fallujah suggest a mobile defense of its positions in Ramadi.
Russian-backed separatists launched a long-anticipated offensive maneuver on June 3 that fully severed a fraying ceasefire in eastern Ukraine. After weeks of military buildup and operational expansion along the front line, the Russian-backed forces stormed government-held military positions immediately west of the separatist stronghold of Donetsk before being driven back by Ukrainian troops.
ISIS is once again attempting to leverage Iraqi dams to force operational recalculations on the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF).
ISIS launched new offensives in northern Syria following its seizure of the strategic city of Palmyra and other key locations in central Syria over recent weeks.
Some have claimed that ISIS is on the defensive inside Iraq and Syria. A defensive strategy, however, is not a sign of organizational weakness, but rather a sign that ISIS intends to preserve its holdings in Iraq and Syria and keep its claim to a caliphate. ISIS’s defensive strategies include expanding elsewhere in the Middle East and North Africa, while also maximizing combat power and future opportunities to launch offensives inside Iraq and Syria. Iraq and Syria are the physical foundation for ISIS’s expanding caliphate.
ISIS has launched major attacks against the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) in the Thar Thar region, north of Fallujah and southwest of Samarra, in an effort to maintain freedom of maneuver and protect Ramadi’s northern flank.
The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the "Popular Mobilization" are on the counter-offensive across Salah ad-Din and Anbar provinces.