Publications

Africa File, June 27, 2024: Niger Reallocates Uranium Mine; IS Strengthens in the Sahel; AU Future in Somalia

June 27, 2024 - ISW Press

Niger revoked the operating permit of a French state-owned mining company for a uranium mine in northern Niger. Russia seeks to take over the mine. The Kremlin has a continent-wide strategy to dominate the nuclear energy market to boost the Russian economy and increase leverage over countries that aim to cut Russian energy purchases. The Nigerien junta is likely seeking to gain military support or near-term access to revenue to bolster its counterinsurgency efforts and economy, strengthening its regime security.

Iran Update, June 26, 2024

June 26, 2024 - ISW Press

Hardline candidate Amir Hossein Ghazi Zadeh Hashemi withdrew from the Iranian presidential election on June 26.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26, 2024

June 26, 2024 - ISW Press

The likely Islamic State (IS) affiliate Wilayat Kavkaz terrorist attacks in the Republic of Dagestan on June 23 have increased fears within the Russian information space about further attacks and instability in the North Caucasus.

Iran Update, June 25, 2024

June 25, 2024 - ISW Press

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei expressed foreign and nuclear policy views on June 25 that closely align with ultraconservative hardline presidential candidate Saeed Jalili’s views, possibly indicating that Khamenei endorses Jalili in the upcoming election. Khamenei’s views also signal the supreme leader’s opposition to reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian. Khamenei expressed strong opposition to mending ties with the United States during a speech on June 25, which mirrored similar statements made by Jalili in a foreign policy debate on June 24. Jalili defended Iran’s “nuclear rights” and criticized the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) during the debate.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 25, 2024

June 25, 2024 - ISW Press

Two major international bodies—the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) — announced decisions on June 25 confirming Russia's long-term perpetration of war crimes and human rights violations in Ukraine. The ICC's Pre-Trial Chamber II (the chamber in charge of the ICC's Ukraine-related investigations and prosecutions) announced on June 25 that it had issued arrest warrants for former Russian Defense Minister and current Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov for "the war crime of directing attacks at civilian objects" in Ukraine.

Iran Update, June 24, 2024

June 24, 2024 - ISW Press

Hamas is rebuilding its weapons production capacity in the Gaza Strip as part of a larger effort to reconstitute its military forces. An Israeli military correspondent reported on June 24 that Hamas is establishing small weapons manufacturing sites across the Gaza Strip in order to replenish its stockpiles of military equipment and weapons.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 24, 2024

June 24, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated that Western military assistance is arriving in Ukraine, but that it will likely not arrive at a scale that will significantly impact the frontline situation until at least mid to late July 2024. 

Iran Update, June 23, 2024

June 23, 2024 - ISW Press

Hamas appears to be accelerating its reconstitution effort in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is actively recruiting 18-year-olds and has attempted to conduct training for new recruits. Recruitment is one element of the second stage of reconstitution, regeneration. Reconstitution consists of two general tasks, reorganization and regeneration. 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 23, 2024

June 23, 2024 - ISW Press

The Islamic State (IS) Northern Caucasus branch, Wilayat Kavkaz, likely conducted a complex and coordinated attack against churches, synagogues, and law enforcement structures in the Republic of Dagestan on June 23. Dagestan's Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that unknown actors opened fire on a Russian Orthodox church and a synagogue in Derbent at approximately 1800 local time and then reported within the same hour that another group of unknown actors opened fire on a traffic police post in Makhachkala (120 kilometers north of Derbent). There are also reports of a fire at a synagogue in Makhachkala, although Russian official sources have not confirmed a second synagogue attack. Dagestan announced a counter-terrorism regime following the start of the attacks, and Russian law enforcement killed five of the assailants and wounded six.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 22, 2024

June 22, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian forces appear to be intensifying the tempo of their offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast while decreasing the rate of attacks in northern Kharkiv Oblast. US policy continues to prohibit Ukrainian forces from striking legitimate military targets in Russian territory in the range of Ukrainian HIMARS.

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