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The tempo of Russian air operations has dramatically escalated in Syria. The rate and breadth of Russian airstrikes nearly tripled from May 29 – June 2 in comparison to the previous five day period. ISW was able to assess a total of 29 Russian airstrikes with low and high confidence beginning on May 29 and only 10 locations from May 24 -28.
The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has mounted a major offensive against opposition groups in Northern Aleppo Province, threatening the total collapse of the last pocket of opposition-held terrain along the Syrian-Turkish Border. The looming defeat of the opposition on the Mare'a Line poses a significant risk to the long-term success of the anti-ISIS campaign by foreclosing future partnership with Sunni Arabs in Northern Syria and deepening U.S. overreliance on the Syrian Kurdish YPG
ISIS continued to set conditions for Ramadan by launching attacks within and along the periphery of the Muslim world in order to foster regional disorder and push the boundaries of its caliphate contiguous to non-Muslim lands. The group is expanding its footprint to the edges of non-Muslim lands, as shown by arrests in Ingushetia, Russia and escalating attacks in majority-Muslim areas in Bangladesh and the Philippines and in Pakistan. ISIS is likely preparing to launch new affiliates in Bangladesh and the Philippines during the holy month of Ramadan, which begins on June 6.
ISIS continued to set conditions for Ramadan by launching attacks within and along the periphery of the Muslim world in order to foster regional disorder and push the boundaries of its caliphate contiguous to non-Muslim lands. The group is expanding its footprint to the edges of non-Muslim lands, as shown by arrests in Ingushetia, Russia and escalating attacks in majority-Muslim areas in Bangladesh and the Philippines and in Pakistan.
How is the campaign for Fallujah going? Read our updates from May 26 and May 31, but also check out this animated map showing ISW/Popular Mobilization/tribal forces gains.
May 26: http://bit.ly/1WR0ho3
May 31: http://bit.ly/22xJRRg (+animated map)
The operation to retake Fallujah has advanced towards the city limits since ISW’s May 26 Fallujah map, as joint forces from the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), Popular Mobilization, and Sunni tribal fighters close in on a multiple-axis assault to encircle the city. The ISF and Popular Mobilization continue to recapture terrain north of Fallujah, including al-Sajar, and consolidate holdings around Garma District, which was recaptured on May 23. Popular Mobilization Deputy Chairman Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a U.S.
The operation to retake Fallujah has advanced towards the city limits since ISW’s May 26 Fallujah map, as joint forces from the ISF, Popular Mobilization, and Sunni tribal fighters close in on a multiple-axis assault to encircle the city. The ISF and Popular Mobilization continue to recapture terrain north of Fallujah, including al-Sajar, and consolidate holdings around Garma District
The next forty-five days constitute a high-risk period for a surge of attacks by ISIS during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. ISIS traditionally uses Ramadan – which begins on June 6 and ends on July 5, 2016 - as a justification for its attacks and as an occasion to reorient its strategy.