Iraq

Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi made his boldest move against Iranian proxy militias yet. 

Prime Minister Abadi is facing grave political challenges following his announcement of a cabinet reshuffle on February 9. 

The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency Chief, Vincent Stewart, noted that a Mosul operation was unlikely to occur in 2016, underscoring that the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have far to go before being ready to recapture the city.

American over-reliance on Kurdish forces as the primary ground partner in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) threatens the long-term success of the anti-ISIS campaign. These pitfalls could promote future regional disorder and prevent the U.S. from successfully degrading and destroying ISIS.

Financial difficulties stemming from collapsed oil prices, corruption, and the cost of the anti-ISIS fight pose an increasingly dire threat to Iraq that may prove more destabilizing than ISIS. 

The U.S. is actively searching for ways to increase its impact on the anti-ISIS fight in Iraq. U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter called on Coalition members on January 22 to increase the amount of support they provide, and the U.S. indicated plans to intensify its own assistance for anti-ISIS actors in Iraq.

Iraqi Shi’a militias significantly escalated their confrontation with the U.S.

Rival Shi’a political factions are capitalizing on increased instability in Basra to compete for influence. 

The ISF made significant gains in Ramadi in December, clearing much of the city center and recapturing the government complex on December 28.