Iran

The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) agreed to extend their temporary ceasefire in northeastern Syria “to the end of the week.”

Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani is attempting to consolidate HTS’s political and military control in a post-interim Syrian government.

Syrian Arab Army (SAA) reinforcements fortified defensive lines north of Hama City and prevented Syrian opposition forces from advancing into Hama City.

The Israel-Lebanese Hezbollah ceasefire has held as it went into effect on November 26.

Iranian media reported that Iran is activating 5,000 centrifuges in response to the censure resolution that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passed on November 21.

The damage caused by Israel’s October 25 strike targeting Iran’s ballistic missile production facilities combined with Iran’s decreased missile stockpile makes another Iranian large-scale ballistic missile attack targeting Israel unlikely.

The precise nature of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strikes into Iran on October 25 has obscured the significant damage inflicted on critical Iranian military infrastructure.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Office recently gave US officials a document detailing Israel’s conditions for a ceasefire and diplomatic solution to end the war with Hezbollah.

Israeli forces are transitioning to the third phase of their operations in the northern Gaza Strip, which will very likely enable Hamas to reconstitute itself militarily. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that it withdrew five brigades from the northern Gaza Strip on December 31. This reduction in forces is part of what the IDF has described as its third phase in the strip, which also involves ending major combat operations, releasing reservists, transitioning to “targeted raids,” and establishing a security buffer zone within the Gaza Strip. Israeli forces have degraded several Hamas units and rendered others combat ineffective, particularly in the northern Gaza strip, since the beginning of the clearing operations. But Hamas’ military forces are neither defeated nor destroyed at this time. Decreased Israeli pressure would, in fact, allow Hamas to rebuild its military capabilities and infrastructure. Hamas maintains a conventional military structure, meaning that it should be able to quickly replace commanders who have died in the war. Several recently killed Hamas battalion and brigade commanders had led their units for many years, suggesting that they had the ability and time to develop successors to take their place. Such reconstitution is inconsistent with the stated Israeli war aims, which are to destroy Hamas militarily and politically.

Iran has increased its production rate of highly enriched uranium (HEU). The United States and the E3 confirmed in a joint statement on December 28 that Iran has increased its enrichment rate of 60 percent purity uranium. Iran has been stockpiling 60 percent HEU since April 2021. Iran decreased its enrichment rate and HEU stockpile after it reached an informal nuclear agreement with the United States in August 2023. Western media reported that the United States refroze Iranian financial assets released as part of the agreement in October. Iran’s current stockpile of 60 percent HEU stands at 128.3 kilograms as of October 28.