Syria

Merger of Prominent Islamist Groups Provides JN Opportunity to Establish Partnership:  The absorption of Suqour al-Sham into HASI counters rising JN influence in northern Syria by consolidating the combat power of major Islamist elements of the opposition. The merger does not, however, necessarily challenge JN’s military supremacy nor jeopardize its ongoing efforts to govern.

JN Designates Main Effort in Dera’a Despite Airstrike Targeting JN Leadership in Idlib: JN appears to have designated a main effort by deploying a significant convoy of military reinforcements

Both the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) plan to conduct attacks in Lebanon in the near term.

ISIS Forces Defeated on Multiple Fronts: Continued victories by YPG forces supported by local militias, rebel groups, and U.S.–led coalition air strikes have considerably challenged ISIS in northern Syria.

Rebel Forces Repel Regime Advance North of Aleppo: The success of rebel forces in blunting and reversing the regime offensive north of Aleppo city indicates that regime forces remain unable to decisively complete the encirclement of Aleppo without the risk of overextension.

Iran Raises its Posture in Southern Syria: IRGC Quds Force commander General Qassem Suleimani’s appearance along regime frontlines validates reports of Iranian command-and-control over the ongoing offensive in Dera’a Province.

Iranian-backed militias expanded their operations into northern Iraq where they have not previously operated.

ISIS Continues to Lose Ground in Northeastern Aleppo: ISIS appears to be contracting in response to continued gains by the YPG and allied rebel forces.

YPG forces have taken Ayn al-Arab/Kobani from ISIS and swept outward to clear the surrounding countryside.