Ukraine

Russian-backed separatist forces renewed coordinated offensive operations across the front line in eastern Ukraine on November 7. This escalation follows a two-month operational pause that coincided with the start of the Russian intervention in Syria. Both the separatist ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ (DNR) and the Ukrainian military reported the completion of the withdrawal of light artillery from the front line in the days leading up to the recent clashes.

Russia continued to shape conditions on the ground in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East following the air safety memorandum of understanding signed with the U.S. on October 20, 2015.

Russia reached an understanding with the U.S. on air safety guidelines in Syria on October 20,  but Russia's aggressive maneuvers against U.S. aircraft and violations of Turkish airspace are likely to continue in order to keep U.S. air power in the Middle East in check.

President Vladimir Putin seeks to project Russian military force forward into the territory of the former Soviet Union while competing with the U.S. for influence in the Middle East.

Russia mobilized and transported forces and equipment to Syria under the guise of military exercises. ­The link between Russia’s arrival at the naval base at Tartus and its military exercises in the Eastern Mediterranean are clear, and the proximity in time of Russia’s deployment into Syria and its Center 2015 exercise indicates that these military exercises served as preludes or covers for deployments.

The positioning of Russian aircraft in Syria gives the Kremlin an ability to shape and control U.S. and Western operations in both Syria and Iraq out of all proportion to the size of the Russian force. It can compel the U.S. to accept a de facto combined coalition with Russia, Syria, Iran, and Lebanese Hezbollah, possibly in support of indiscriminate operations against any and all regime opponents, not just ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra.