Iran Update, April 27, 2024

Iran Update, April 27, 2024

Johanna Moore, Amin Soltani, Annika Ganzeveld, and Brian Carter

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Click here to subscribe to the Iran Update.

CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.

We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

CTP-ISW will publish abbreviated updates on April 27 and 28, 2024. Detailed coverage will resume on Monday, April 29, 2024.

Key Takeaways:

• Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued to target Palestinian fighters and militia infrastructure across the Gaza Strip.
• West Bank: Israeli forces have engaged Palestinian fighters in at least two locations across the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last information cutoff on April 26.
• Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least four attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on April 26.
• Yemen: The Houthis launched three ballistic missiles targeting two commercial vessels in the Red Sea on April 26.
• Iraq: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it launched one drone targeting an unspecified “vital target” in Haifa on April 26.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and the public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
• Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

Israeli forces continued to target Palestinian fighters and militia infrastructure across the Gaza Strip. The IDF Air Force struck over 25 militia targets across the Gaza Strip since CTP-ISW's last information cut off on April 26.[1] The 679th Armored Brigade directed an airstrike targeting Palestinian fighters who the IDF said were preparing to fire at Israeli forces from a building in an unspecified area of the Central Gaza Strip.[2] The IDF Air Force targeted a vehicle transporting eight Hamas fighters in the central Gaza Strip.[3] The IDF Air Force also struck a rocket or mortar launch position in Khan Younis as Palestinian fighters prepared to fire from the position.[4]

The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine targeted Israeli forces east of Khan Younis.[5]

The IDF reported on April 27 that the Israeli Defense Ministry began construction of a humanitarian aid distribution area on the coast of the central Gaza Strip.[6] This aid distribution point will service the US-constructed pier off the coast of the Gaza Strip.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel

Israeli forces have engaged Palestinian fighters in at least two locations across the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last information cutoff on April 26.[7]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Deter Israel from conducting a ground operation into Lebanon
• Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
• Expel the United States from Syria

Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least four attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on April 26.[8]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

The Houthis launched three ballistic missiles targeting two commercial vessels in the Red Sea on April 26.[9] US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that the Houthis launched three anti-ship ballistic missiles targeting the Barbados-flagged, Liberia-operated Maisha and United Kingdom-owned, Panama-flagged Andromeda Star.[10] CENTCOM and British maritime security firm Ambrey reported minor damage to the Andromeda Star.[11] The Houthi military spokesperson claimed the attack targeted the Andromeda Star, adding that Houthi forces also shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over Saada Governorate, northern Yemen.[12]

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed that it launched one drone targeting an unspecified “vital target” in Haifa on April 26.[13] CTP-ISW cannot verify this claim. Israeli officials and media have not commented on the claimed attack at the time of this writing.

[1] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1784101959944810798

[2] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1784101953951391981

[3] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1784101956845216246

[4] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1784101949777862733

[5] https://t.me/pflpgaza1/14088

[6] https://www.idf dot il/194192

[7] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6328 ;

https://t.me/sarayajneen/1254

[8] https://t.me/mmirleb/3548 ;

https://t.me/mmirleb/3554 ;

https://t.me/C_Military1/49438 ;

https://t.me/C_Military1/49441

[9] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1784021287553135050 ; https://www.jpost dot com/breaking-news/article-798840

[10] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1784021287553135050

[11] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1784021287553135050; https://www.jpost dot com/breaking-news/article-798840

[12] https://x.com/army21ye/status/1783976179675939176

[13] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/1061