Iran Update, February 11, 2024

Iran Update, February 11, 2024

Ashka Jhaveri, Andie Parry, Peter Mills, Annika Ganzeveld, Alexandra Braverman, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm EST 

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Click here to subscribe to the Iran Update.

Key Takeaways:

• Northern and central Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in the northern and central Gaza Strip.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Hamas, Egyptian, and Houthi officials issued threats likely to dissuade the IDF from a military operation into Rafah.
• West Bank: Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters twice.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted five attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
• Syria: Likely Iranian-backed militants tried to conduct a drone attack targeting US forces at Conoco Mission Support Site in Deir ez Zor Province, Syria.
• Yemen: US Central Command forces conducted self-defense strikes targeting Houthi anti-ship cruise missiles and unmanned surface vessels.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) clashed with Palestinian fighters in the northern and central Gaza Strip on February 11. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) mortared Israeli military positions east of Gaza City.[1] The PFLP is a secular leftist Palestinian faction fighting with Hamas. The Palestinian Mujahideen Movement fired rockets at an Israeli military position in southeast Gaza City.[2] The Palestinian Mujahideen Movement is a Palestinian faction aligned with Hamas and has expressed close ties with Iran. The IDF Nahal Brigade (assigned to the 162nd Division) clashed with and killed Palestinian fighters targeting Israeli forces with anti-tank missiles in the central Gaza Strip.[3] Israeli aircraft targeted a weapons warehouse and Palestinian fighters in the central Gaza Strip.[4]

Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in western and eastern Khan Younis on February 11. The IDF 35th Paratroopers Brigade and 89th Commando Brigade (both assigned to the 98th Division) clashed with Palestinian fighters in western Khan Younis.[5] The 646th Brigade (assigned to the 99th Division) launched a new clearing operation in eastern Khan Younis and detained approximately 60 Palestinian fighters.[6] Palestinian militias mortared Israeli forces in eastern Khan Younis.[7] The IDF 98th Division directed airstrikes targeting three weapons depots and a Palestinian militia squad in Khan Younis.[8] The commander of the 98th Division stated that Israeli forces have “dismantled and destroyed” Hamas in Khan Younis both under and above ground.[9]

The IDF reported on February 11 that its 84th Givati Brigade (assigned to the 162nd Division) “deepened” the damage it inflicted on Hamas’ Western Khan Younis Battalion.[10] Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade is composed of five battalions.[11] The Givati Brigade killed about 100 Palestinian fighters in several clashes using tanks, small arms, and air support “in the last few weeks.” Israeli forces “expanded” ground operations in western Khan Younis on January 22.[12]

Hamas, Egyptian, and Houthi officials issued threats likely to dissuade the IDF from a military operation into Rafah on February 11. An unspecified senior Hamas official speaking to a Hamas-affiliated outlet said that an Israeli ground incursion into Rafah would “torpedo” hostage exchange negotiations.[13] Two Egyptian officials and a Western diplomat told the Associated Press that an Israeli ground operation in Rafah would freeze the Egypt-Israel Camp David Accords peace treaty.[14] A senior Houthi official warned that the Houthi movement would intensify attacks against Israel if the IDF entered Rafah.[15] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview with ABC that Israeli forces would “provide safe passage” to Gazan civilians from Rafah to unspecified, already cleared areas north of Rafah and reiterated that the IDF will enter Rafah in the near future.[16]

Palestinian fighters did not conduct any indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel on February 11.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters twice across the West Bank on February 11.[17]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah conducted five attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on February 11.[18]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

Likely Iranian-backed militants tried to conduct a drone attack targeting US forces at Conoco Mission Support Site in Deir ez Zor Province, Syria, on February 10.[19] US air defense systems intercepted the drones.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted self-defense strikes targeting Houthi anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM) and unmanned surface vessels (USV) on February 10.[20] CENTCOM forces struck three mobile ASCMs and two USVs north of Hudaydah in Yemen. CENTCOM conducted the preemptive, self-defense strikes after determining that the ASCMs and USVs presented an “imminent threat” to merchant vessels and US Navy ships in the Red Sea.

[1] https://t.me/abualiajel/131

[2] https://t.me/darebmojahden/4350

[3] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1756578357544677388

[4] https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1756578367325786130

[5] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1756578359218241910

[6] https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1756577961585565893

[7] https://t.me/abualiajel/131; https://t.me/sarayaps/17420; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5699

[8] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1756578405984752010

[9] https://www.idf dot il/179530; https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1756404988748697783

[10] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1756619544502694370

[11] The Order of Battle of Hamas’ Izz al Din al Qassem Brigades Part 2 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

[12] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1749460612860592320

[13] https://t.me/hamaswestbank/50297 ; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-says-any-israeli-ground-offensive-rafah-will-blow-up-hostage-exchange-2024-02-11/

[14] https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-02-11-2014-785309c668e15728c6aac9905f290b4d

[15] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/11/22/3037546

[16] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68266335 ; https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/defying-biden-israels-netanyahu-doubles-down-on-plans-to-fight-in-rafah-7b66d1dd?mod=middle-east_news_article_pos1

[17] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5696 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5701

[18] https://t.me/mmirleb/1967 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/1969 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/1971 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/1973 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/1975

[19] https://www.reuters.com/world/us-led-coalition-blocks-attacks-conoco-oil-field-syria-source-2024-02-10/

[20] https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1756664675771551921