Iran Project

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly called on Lebanese Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire agreement that would require Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani River per UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Two individuals affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) told the New York Times on November 16 that senior Supreme Leader adviser Ali Larijani conveyed this message to Hezbollah during his recent visit to Beirut. The message emphasized that Khamenei supports “ending the war with Israel” and that Iran will help Hezbollah recover from the war.

Iran has very likely restarted its nuclear weapons research program in the past year. This assessment is based on publicly reported US and Israeli intelligence about Iranian research activity at the Parchin Military Complex outside Tehran in recent months.

Israeli forces have likely disrupted Lebanese Hezbollah’s ability to fire into Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported the daily rate of Hezbollah attacks has declined on average over the “past few weeks” and has decreased by half in the past week.

The damage caused by Israel’s October 25 strike targeting Iran’s ballistic missile production facilities combined with Iran’s decreased missile stockpile makes another Iranian large-scale ballistic missile attack targeting Israel unlikely.

Newly-appointed Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz reaffirmed that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will continue its operation in Lebanon until it accomplishes its mission. Katz made these comments during a meeting with the IDF General Staff. Katz replaced Yoav Gallant as defense minister on November 8 and was formerly foreign minister. Katz affirmed that Israel would “continue to hit Hezbollah with full force” to capitalize on past successes like the killing of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and “realize the fruits of victory.”

The precise nature of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strikes into Iran on October 25 has obscured the significant damage inflicted on critical Iranian military infrastructure.

Hezbollah officials continue to claim that Israeli ground operations in Lebanon are failing to achieve Israeli objectives. The head of Hezbollah’s media office, Mohammad Afif, claimed in a November 11 press conference in Beirut that Israel has been unable to hold terrain in any Lebanese villages.

The IDF has destroyed the ability of Lebanese Hezbollah to conduct ground attacks into northern Israel, according to senior IDF officers. Hezbollah continues to threaten civilians in northern Israel with relatively long-range weapons, however.

The IDF continued clearing operations in the northern Gaza Strip. The IDF also allowed aid trucks to enter the northern Gaza Strip for the first time in several weeks.  Israeli forces conducted raids in the northern West Bank, killing a Palestinian fighter, as part of an effort to degrade Palestinian militia networks there. The IDF continued clearing operations and its air campaign, targeting Lebanese Hezbollah capabilities and infrastructure in Lebanon.

Qatar instructed Hamas’ political leadership to relocate from Doha, according to US officials and Israeli media. The Qatar-based members of the Hamas Political Bureau would in this case need to find a new base of operations, which could be Iraq.