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Iran Update, June 20, 2023

June 20, 2023 - ISW Press

An IRGC-affiliated news outlet tracked a US-Iraqi logistics convoy, possibly to signal Iranian intent to direct an attack on US interests in Iraq.

Iranian leaders met with senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Hamas officials in Tehran, likely to signal Iran will provide greater support to the groups to combat Israel. Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ahmadian meeting with senior PIJ and Hamas officials likely reflects his effort to integrate himself into Iranian policymaking vis-à-vis Israel.

The IRGC Intelligence Organization (IRGC-IO) chief framed threats to Iran in a domestic context, which indicates the organization is prioritizing internal security over external threats. Kazemi’s interview represents a continuation of the IRGC Intelligence Organization’s shift away from external threats toward internal security.

Iran is attempting to expand economic relations with Uzbekistan, likely to improve the Iranian economy.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20, 2023

June 20, 2023 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on June 20. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations on the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts and in western Zaporizhia oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that units of the Eastern Grouping of Forces repelled four Ukrainian assaults near Orikhiv, Zaporizhia Oblast, and in western Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported on June 19 that Russian forces have committed significant forces to stop Ukrainian offensives, making Ukrainian advances difficult. Malyar added that ongoing Ukrainian operations have several tasks that are not solely focused on liberating territory and that Ukrainian forces have yet to start the main phase of counteroffensive operations.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 19, 2023

June 19, 2023 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the frontline and made gains on June 19. A Russian milblogger reported that Ukrainian troops continued attacks northwest, northeast, and southwest of Bakhmut on June 19 claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced near Krasnopolivka (about 12km northeast of Bakhmut). Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar additionally announced that over the past week, Ukrainian troops in the Tavrisk (Zaporizhia) direction have advanced up to seven kilometers and liberated 113 square kilometers of territory, including eight settlements in western Donetsk and western Zaporizhia oblasts. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops attacked south of Velyka Novosilka in western Donetsk Oblast. Geolocated footage posted on June 19 confirms that Ukrainian troops liberated Pyatykhatky, about 25km southwest of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Milbloggers also reported fighting south and southwest of Orikhiv over the course of the day on June 19. The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) assessed on June 19 that Russia has likely deployed large portions of the Dnipro Grouping of Forces from the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast to the Zaporizhia and Bakhmut directions to respond to Ukrainian counteroffensive actions over the past 10 days.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18, 2023

June 18, 2023 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least four sectors of the front on June 18 and made limited territorial gains. Geolocated footage suggests that Ukrainian forces made limited advances within 30km south of Kreminna.Avdiivka City Military Administration Head Vitaliy Barabash reported that Ukrainian forces advanced more than a kilometer north of Avdiivka on the Donetsk City frontline over the past two weeks. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations south, southwest, and southeast of Velyka Novosilka on the administrative border between western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts and made some localized advances. Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and geolocated footage suggests that Ukrainian forces entered the western part of Pyatykhatky (41km southeast of Zaporizhzhia City), southwest of Orikhiv. Ukrainian Tavrisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Valeriy Shershen stated that Russian forces continue to counterattack in western Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts, and that Ukrainian forces have “a lot of work.” Ukrainian Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported that Russian forces continue to transfer personnel and heavy military equipment from around Nova Kakhovka and Kakhovka in eastern Kherson Oblast to the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline via Melitopol.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17, 2023

June 17, 2023 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least four sectors of the front on June 17. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and other Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted localized ground attacks west and south of Kreminna. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces continue counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut, and Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked on the northern and southern outskirts of Bakhmut. The Russian MoD and other Russian sources also claimed that Russian forces repelled limited Ukrainian ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line. Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations south, southwest, and southeast of Velyka Novosilka near the administrative border between western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts. Ukrainian forces also conducted counteroffensive operations southwest and southeast of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Malyar also stated that Ukrainian forces advanced up to two kilometers in multiple unspecified directions in southern Ukraine.

Iran Update, June 16, 2023

June 16, 2023 - ISW Press

Iran may have directed its Iraqi proxies to deescalate their rhetoric against US forces in Iraq. This is consistent with one of CTP’s hypotheses, which is that Iran is threatening attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria to build leverage in the nuclear negotiations.

Iran and Syria coordinated their policy positions ahead of the next round of Astana talks.

Iran and Russia discussed Caspian Sea and Volga River transportation routes on June 16. The expansion of these routes could support Iran's transfer of military equipment to Russia.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stressed Iran, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela’s common struggle against “imperialism and domination” on his trip to Latin America between June 12-16, suggesting that Iran may seek to incorporate these countries into its Axis of Resistance.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16, 2023

June 16, 2023 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least three sectors of the front on June 16 and reportedly made gains. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that the Ukrainian forces conducted successful counteroffensive operations southwest of Bakhmut near Stupochky (about 12km southwest of Bakhmut); in western Donetsk Oblast near Vuhledar; in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area along the Levadne-Staromaiorske line; and in western Zaporizhia Oblast along the Novodanlylivka-Robotyne line. Geolocated footage posted on June 15 indicates that Ukrainian forces have made marginal gains on the northwestern outskirts of Bakhmut west of Yahidne, and Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops continued counterattacks northwest, west, and southwest of Bakhmut. Russian milbloggers additionally claimed that Ukrainian forces continued attacking Russian positions south of Velyka Novosilka in western Donetsk Oblast, made gains in central Zaporizhia Oblast just south of Hulyaipole, and mounted offensive operations southwest of Orikhiv.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, June 16, 2023

June 16, 2023 - ISW Press

The narrative that the 2024 presidential election is a choice between peace and war is likely to reemerge as the dominant narrative in the mid to long term.

The CCP used a recent report about US evacuation plans for Taiwan to advance information operations that aim to degrade United States-Taiwan security cooperation.

China questioned the United States’ motives for re-joining the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) in a likely attempt to establish conditions to discredit US global leadership.

CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping’s call for “large domestic [economic] circulation” that can withstand “extreme circumstances” is likely a long-term push to create a sanction-resistant Chinese economy while engaging with, but not becoming reliant upon, the international economic environment.

Iran Update, June 15, 2023

June 15, 2023 - ISW Press

An unidentified high-ranking Israel Defense Forces (IDF) commander told Newsweek that Israel is concerned about Russia transferring Western weapons captured in Ukraine to Iran. The IDF officer expressed concerns that Iran is researching Western weapons technology and sending the weapons to its client militias in Lebanon and Palestine. The IDF officer’s claims are consistent with previous Western reports. CNN previously reported that Russian forces have been capturing US- and NATO-provided weapons and equipment in Ukraine and sending these materials to Iran, notably Javelin anti-tank and Stinger anti-aircraft systems. A Russian military aircraft transported those same systems and a British NLAW anti-tank missile to Tehran on August 20, 2022, according to Sky News. This Iranian and Russian defense cooperation is part of a broader and evolving partnership evident in several different fields between Tehran and Moscow, as CTP has previously reported.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15, 2023

June 15, 2023 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and reportedly made gains on June 15. Ukrainian General Staff Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun reported that Ukrainian forces conducted successful offensive operations north and northwest of Bakhmut. Ukraine’s Tavrisk Group of Forces Press Center reported that Ukrainian forces advanced up to one kilometer in western Donetsk Oblast and are continuing attempts to improve their tactical positions near Vuhledar (30km southwest of Donetsk City). Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops unsuccessfully attacked southwest and south of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast and claimed that Ukrainian forces are increasing the tempo of counteroffensive operations in the area due to improved weather conditions. Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the Ukrainian General Staff Brigadier General Oleksii Hromov reported that Ukrainian forces have advanced up to 3km near Mala Tokmachka in western Zaporizhia Oblast and up to 7km near Velyka Novosilka in western Donetsk Oblast and have liberated seven settlements in those areas since beginning counteroffensive operations. Advisor to the Ukrainian Presidential Office Mykhailo Podolyak however stated on June 15 that Ukrainian forces have yet to launch counteroffensives “as such” but acknowledged that Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive actions, a likely clarification that Ukrainian forces have not yet begun their main effort. ISW assesses that ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations are likely setting conditions for wider Ukrainian counteroffensive objectives that are not immediately clear and therefore represent the initial phase of an ongoing counteroffensive.

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