Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10, 2024
May 10, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian forces began an offensive operation along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of May 10 and made tactically significant gains.
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Publications
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, May 10, 2024
May 10, 2024 - ISW Press
The Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) has normalized patrols around Kinmen, a Taiwan-controlled island with a large military garrison roughly 3 kilometers from the coast of the PRC. The CCG began patrols in Kinmen’s prohibited waters in February after two PRC fishermen drowned while fleeing from a Taiwanese Coast Guard pursuit on February 14. The PRC pledged after the incident to strengthen law enforcement activities around Kinmen. The PRC has increased the frequency of CCG patrols in Kinmen’s waters and the volume of ships per event since it began routine violations in late February.
Iran Update, May 9, 2024
May 9, 2024 - ISW Press
Israeli forces are re-clearing parts of the northern Gaza Strip, demonstrating that Hamas remains active beyond just Rafah. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a clearing operation into Zaytoun neighborhood, southern Gaza City, on May 8, marking the third time that the IDF has conducted a clearing operation there. The IDF began by conducting airstrikes targeting Palestinian militia observation posts, sniper positions and tunnels.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 9, 2024
May 9, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian President Vladimir Putin used his May 9 Victory Day speech to relitigate his belief that the West is attempting to erase the Soviet Union's contributions to defeating Nazi Germany during the Great Patriotic War (Second World War), a grievance that is at the core of Russia's adversarial perceptions of the West. Putin claimed during the Victory Day parade, which is held to commemorate the Soviet Union's victory and sacrifices during the Second World War, that "they," referring to the West, are attempting to "distort" the truth about the Second World War and "demolish" the memory of Soviet heroism and sacrifice.
Africa File, May 9, 2024: America and Russia’s Shifting Roles in West Africa
May 9, 2024 - ISW Press
The United States is strengthening counterterrorism and defense cooperation with littoral West African countries as it plans its withdrawal from Niger. US Africa Command Commander Gen. Michael Langley met with top civilian and military leaders, including the presidents and defense chiefs, in Côte d’Ivoire and Benin between April 28 and May 3.
Iran Update, May 8, 2024
May 8, 2024 - ISW Press
Hamas’ leaders have very likely calculated that Hamas will survive a Rafah operation and that Hamas should therefore pursue its maximalist ceasefire demands without major concessions.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2024
May 8, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian forces conducted large-scale missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of May 7 to 8, continuing to exploit Ukraine's degraded air defense umbrella ahead of the arrival of US and Western security assistance at scale.
Iran Update, May 7, 2024
May 7, 2024 - ISW Press
Hamas acknowledged that the deal it “accepted” on May 6 satisfied its maximalist demands. Indirect ceasefire negotiations continued between Israel and Hamas in Cairo on May 7. Israel did not receive the proposal on May 6 until an hour after Hamas “accepted” the deal. Hamas and Israel both sent delegations to the May 7 indirect talks. The ongoing talks suggest that Hamas’ May 6 “accepted” proposal is better understood as a new counterproposal for a maximalist ceasefire. Hamas has not changed its maximalist demands in negotiations since December 2023.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2024
May 7, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term as Russian President on May 7 and stressed Russia's need for unchallenged autocratic rule while indirectly calling for victory in Ukraine. Putin thanked Russian citizens, the residents of Russia’s “historical lands,” participants in the “special military operation,” and those who have “defended the right to be together with the motherland,” and called on Russia to unite for victory. Putin did not specify what this Russian victory entails and only vaguely referenced Russia's “serious challenges.” Putin has long justified his effort to destroy Ukrainian statehood by claiming that Russia is fighting for "historic lands" in Ukraine and coming to the aid of "compatriots abroad" who desire to reunite with Russia.
Iran Update, May 6, 2024
May 6, 2024 - ISW Press
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) began conducting targeted airstrikes against Palestinian militias in eastern Rafah on May 6. IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari stated on May 6 that the IDF Air Force struck 50 targets around Rafah in the past day as part of preparations for a clearing operation into Rafah. Local journalists posted geolocated footage from May 5 and 6 showing extensive Israeli airstrikes and artillery fire into eastern Rafah.