Iran Project

Hamas incursions into southern Israel by land and sea have slowed since October 9. Palestinian militant groups are now relying on rocket barrages and attack drones to hit towns in northern and southern Israel. Rocket fire from Gaza extended north to Haifa and multiple barrages have hit Tel Aviv. The Hamas spokesperson warned Israeli civilians to evacuate Ashkelon near the Gaza border before the group launched hundreds of rockets on October 10, claiming the attack was retribution for Israeli airstrikes on Gaza. Hamas warnings have not preceded such rocket barrages previously. Israel conducted strikes in over 1,270 locations in Gaza and killed at least three Hamas leaders over the two-day period. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson stated early on October 10 that its forces regained control of the Gaza border. Clashes continued in isolated pockets immediately north and east of the Gaza Strip on October 10 and 11, however.

Hamas is expanding its incursions into southern Israel as Palestinian militias in the West Bank and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) clash with Israeli security forces in the northern province of the country. The situation could expand the war to a second front. Hamas launched a surprise ground and air attack into Israel on October 7 which included sending hundreds of fighters into Israel to attack nearby border posts, military sites, and residential areas. Israel is conducting airstrikes in Gaza to retaliate. Iran’s Axis of Resistance is aligning itself with Hamas’ operation, however.

Palestinian militias in Gaza responded to calls from Hamas to join in fighting against Israeli security forces on October 8. Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and Palestinian militias also conducted attacks on Israeli positions from south Lebanon and the West Bank, respectively, which could expand the war to a second front.

Hamas has launched a surprise ground and air attack into Israel, marking the most significant escalation between the two sides in decades. Hundreds of Hamas fighters crossed from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory and attacked nearby border posts, military sites, and residential areas on October 7.

Key Takeaways
1. Turkey has conducted a series of airstrikes in northern Syria against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—the United States’ sole security partner in the country—since October 5. These attacks are placing significant pressure on the SDF, which, in turn, puts at risk the US mission to defeat ISIS.
2. Iran has demanded that the Iraqi central government extradite members of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups to Iran, according to independent Iraqi outlet Al Mada. Such a demand would appear to violate international law.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel backfilled a formerly Wagner-held position in Sukhnah in central Syria on September 28, supporting Iranian efforts to establish a permanent presence in Syria. Wagner forces withdrew from Sukhnah, among other positions in the central Syrian desert, in September 2023 as part of Wagner’s departure from Syria. The Russian Defense Ministry had previously instructed Wagner forces to leave Syria or join the Russian armed forces by September 20. Iran commonly uses the route running through Sukhnah to move forces and weapons throughout Syria, which the backfilling may further facilitate.

Kuwaiti newspaper Al Jarida reported on October 2 that Iran and Russia have agreed to transfer unspecified weapons from Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) to Russian forces in Ukraine and to tribal insurgents fighting the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria.

Iraqi protesters gathered in at least three cities on October 1 to express frustrations over poor domestic conditions and the Iraqi political establishment. CTP recorded protests in Baghdad, Amarah, and Nasiriyah.

Pro-regime forces are helping the Arab tribes sustain their fight against the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which may facilitate the expulsion of the SDF from parts of their territory. The coalition between the SDF and Arab tribes in Deir ez Zor Province is fracturing amid clashes over long-standing grievances. The tribal insurgency explicitly aims to expel the SDF from Deir ez Zor and establish a governance system led by tribal leaders. Insurgent leader Ibrahim al Hifl said on September 14 that the insurgents aimed to manage the region through the tribes and its “uprising” will not stop until the SDF is expelled. Pro-regime forces immediately seized the opportunity to threaten the SDF by sending forces into SDF-controlled territory after the arrest of a local leader which triggered the clashes on August 27. Since then, regime forces have attempted to prolong conflict in SDF-controlled territory and even redirect grievances toward the US-led International Coalition. Pro-regime support to the tribes to prolong the conflict with the SDF supports the coordinated campaign that Iran, Russia, and the Syrian regime began forming in November 2022 to expel the United States from Syria.

Iran deployed 50 reconnaissance officers to eastern Syria as it pursues multiple operations to secure military assets, conduct counter terrorism operations, and expel the United States from Syria. The reconnaissance officers deployed to four major cities on September 26 in eastern Syria with unspecified orders, according to local opposition media. The deployments could support the following ongoing Iranian lines of effort in eastern Syria.

The People’s Republic of China and Syria signed several development and technology cooperation agreements on September 22, which may compete with reconstruction agreements that Iran and Syria signed in May.

A drone strike near Mayadin City on September 25 caused multiple casualties among the Iranian-affiliated Arab tribesmen who were deploying to Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-controlled territory in eastern Syria. The deployment of Arab tribesmen to combat the SDF is consistent with ISW’s assessment that the tribal insurgency will likely support Iran’s efforts to establish a grassroots resistance to expel US forces from Syria.