Publications

Iran Update, February 26, 2025

February 26, 2025 - ISW Press

 Iran increased its stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium by 92.5 kilograms (kg), or 2.2 significant quantities, according to an unreleased International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 26, 2025

February 26, 2025 - ISW Press

US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are planning to meet at the White House on February 28, likely to sign a US-Ukraine mineral deal. A draft agreement of the deal published ahead of the meeting does not provide US security assistance or security guarantees to Ukraine, however.

A US Withdrawal from Syria Will Reinvigorate the ISIS Terror Threat

February 26, 2025 - ISW Press

The withdrawal of US forces from Syria would risk reversing hard-earned gains against the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). ISIS is not destroyed.  It is kept in check by the combined pressure of US forces in Iraq and Syria and their Kurdish allies. The withdrawal of US forces will remove that pressure and allow ISIS to reconstitute, likely rapidly, to dangerous levels.

Iran Update, February 25, 2025

February 25, 2025 - ISW Press

The British ambassador to Israel stated on February 25 that the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) has given Iran until the end of June 2025 to conclude a new nuclear deal and prevent the imposition of snapback sanctions. It is very unlikely that Iran will conclude a deal with the E3 and the United States by June 2025, given that such a deal would require Iran to completely change its current policy on negotiations.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2025

February 25, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin implicitly acknowledged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president of Ukraine and Russia's future negotiating partner while promoting a new information operation that aims to destabilize Ukrainian society and the Ukrainian military from within.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2025

February 24, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago on February 24, 2022. Ukraine has not been defeated or destroyed but remains resilient and innovative in the face of this unjustified Russian aggression. Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in a failed attempt to seize Kyiv City, overthrow Ukraine's democratically elected government, and forcibly install a pro-Russian proxy government in three days. Ukrainian forces, supported by a coalition of allies including the United States and European partners, have since successfully pushed Russian forces out of northern Ukraine and liberated significant territory in southern and northeastern Ukraine.

Iran Update, February 24, 2025

February 24, 2025 - ISW Press

The Syrian interim government began a two-day National Dialogue Conference on February 24 on 24-hour notice. The Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-affiliated Preparatory Committee started sending invitations to over one thousand Syrians nationwide and internationally on February 23 calling for attendees to report the next day to Damascus. The Preparatory Committee spokesperson Hassan al Daghim said that over 600 invitees arrived in Damascus on February 24. The short notice prevented the attendance of invitees from outside of Syria and likely decreased participation from remote provinces like Hasakah and Raqqa, given the travel and planning requirements inherent for international travel and travel through lines of control within Syria.

Fact Sheet: Istanbul Protocol Draft Document of April 15, 2022

February 24, 2025 - ISW Press

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred on February 23 to the draft Istanbul Protocol crafted in 2022 as a "guidepost" for future negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Russia's demands in the draft agreement were made in the first and second months of the war when Russian troops were advancing on Kyiv City and throughout northeastern, eastern, and southern Ukraine and before Ukrainian forces conducted successful counteroffensives that liberated significant swaths of territory in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts.  The draft agreement does not reflect the situation today in which Ukraine has liberated 50 percent of the territory Russian forces have seized since 2022 and largely forced a year-long Russian offensive to a standstill.  The Istanbul draft agreement surrenders Ukraine's sovereignty and prohibits any efforts by Ukraine or any other state to maintain Ukrainian armed forces adequate to deter or defend against, a future Russian attack.  It also explicitly ruled out many actions Trump Administration officials have identified as parts of a peace agreement acceptable to the US.

Russia Has Failed to Break Ukraine

February 24, 2025 - ISW Press

Russia has achieved relatively faster gains in 2024 than throughout most of the war after the initial invasion and developed a blueprint for conducting slow, tactical envelopments to achieve these advances, but Russian forces have failed to restore the operational maneuver necessary to achieve operationally significant gains rapidly.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2025

February 23, 2025 - ISW Press

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on February 23. An agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document.

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