Publications

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2025

February 24, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago on February 24, 2022. Ukraine has not been defeated or destroyed but remains resilient and innovative in the face of this unjustified Russian aggression. Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in a failed attempt to seize Kyiv City, overthrow Ukraine's democratically elected government, and forcibly install a pro-Russian proxy government in three days. Ukrainian forces, supported by a coalition of allies including the United States and European partners, have since successfully pushed Russian forces out of northern Ukraine and liberated significant territory in southern and northeastern Ukraine.

Iran Update, February 24, 2025

February 24, 2025 - ISW Press

The Syrian interim government began a two-day National Dialogue Conference on February 24 on 24-hour notice. The Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-affiliated Preparatory Committee started sending invitations to over one thousand Syrians nationwide and internationally on February 23 calling for attendees to report the next day to Damascus. The Preparatory Committee spokesperson Hassan al Daghim said that over 600 invitees arrived in Damascus on February 24. The short notice prevented the attendance of invitees from outside of Syria and likely decreased participation from remote provinces like Hasakah and Raqqa, given the travel and planning requirements inherent for international travel and travel through lines of control within Syria.

Fact Sheet: Istanbul Protocol Draft Document of April 15, 2022

February 24, 2025 - ISW Press

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred on February 23 to the draft Istanbul Protocol crafted in 2022 as a "guidepost" for future negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Russia's demands in the draft agreement were made in the first and second months of the war when Russian troops were advancing on Kyiv City and throughout northeastern, eastern, and southern Ukraine and before Ukrainian forces conducted successful counteroffensives that liberated significant swaths of territory in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts.  The draft agreement does not reflect the situation today in which Ukraine has liberated 50 percent of the territory Russian forces have seized since 2022 and largely forced a year-long Russian offensive to a standstill.  The Istanbul draft agreement surrenders Ukraine's sovereignty and prohibits any efforts by Ukraine or any other state to maintain Ukrainian armed forces adequate to deter or defend against, a future Russian attack.  It also explicitly ruled out many actions Trump Administration officials have identified as parts of a peace agreement acceptable to the US.

Russia Has Failed to Break Ukraine

February 24, 2025 - ISW Press

Russia has achieved relatively faster gains in 2024 than throughout most of the war after the initial invasion and developed a blueprint for conducting slow, tactical envelopments to achieve these advances, but Russian forces have failed to restore the operational maneuver necessary to achieve operationally significant gains rapidly.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2025

February 23, 2025 - ISW Press

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on February 23. An agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document.

Putin is Unlikely to Demobilize in the Event of a Ceasefire Because He is Afraid of His Veterans

February 23, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a coordinated campaign in late 2022 and early 2023 to prevent the emergence of an independent veterans-based civil society in Russia, likely out of fear that veteran groups could threaten the stability of his regime upon their return from Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 22, 2025

February 22, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed on February 22 that US and Russian officials are planning to meet within the next two weeks in an unspecified third country about bilateral relations. Ryabkov claimed that the United States and Russia are undertaking two "parallel" but "politically interconnected" negotiation tracks that will discuss the war in Ukraine and US-Russian bilateral relations.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 21, 2025

February 21, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian state media and Kremlin officials appear to be leveraging select statements from US officials alongside long-standing Russian narratives to create tension between the United States and Ukraine and undermine faith in America's commitment to Ukraine.

Iran Update, February 21, 2025

February 21, 2025 - ISW Press

Iranian Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabbari—adviser to the IRGC commander—threatened to attack "all [US] bases and ships in the region" during a speech at the Great Prophet 19 military exercise on February 20.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, February 20, 2025

February 21, 2025 - ISW Press

Taiwanese civil society groups have now submitted 52 recall petitions, 36 of which target opposition legislators and 16 of which target legislators from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The 2024 legislative election results and recent polling suggest that up to 12 Kuomintang (KMT) and 6 DPP legislators are at risk of getting recalled.

Pages