Publications

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 16, 2024

November 16, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian drone operations continue to play a critical role in constraining Russian mechanized maneuver and preventing Russian forces from fully exploiting Ukraine's ongoing manpower constraints. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated during an interview with Ukrainian media published on November 16 that Russian forces are currently advancing along the frontline due in part to decreased Ukrainian morale exacerbated by delays in staffing and equipping new Ukrainian brigades and granting frontline Ukrainian defenders necessary rest and rotation.

Iran Update, November 15, 2024

November 15, 2024 - ISW Press

Iran has very likely restarted its nuclear weapons research program in the past year. This assessment is based on publicly reported US and Israeli intelligence about Iranian research activity at the Parchin Military Complex outside Tehran in recent months.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 15, 2024

November 15, 2024 - ISW Press

The Kremlin is intensifying its reflexive control campaign aimed at influencing Western decision-making in Russia's favor ahead of or in lieu of possible future negotiations about the resolution of the war in Ukraine.

Africa File, November 14, 2024: Russia-Africa Ministerial Summit; AQ and IS Infiltrate Northwestern Nigeria; Jubbaland Goes Rogue

November 15, 2024 - ISW Press

Russia used the first Russia-Africa Ministerial Summit to continue pushing narratives and securing deals that advance its strategic objective of using Africa to undermine the Western-led international system and highlight its stature as a global power.

Iran Update, November 14, 2024

November 14, 2024 - ISW Press

Israeli forces have likely disrupted Lebanese Hezbollah’s ability to fire into Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported the daily rate of Hezbollah attacks has declined on average over the “past few weeks” and has decreased by half in the past week.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 14, 2024

November 14, 2024 - ISW Press

The Kremlin's recent economic policies indicate that the Russian economy will likely face significant challenges in 2025 and that Russian President Vladimir Putin is worried about Russia's economic stability in the long term. The Kremlin recently adopted several policies that aim to cut Russian government spending on wounded Russian servicemen, combat inflation, and address long-term demographic problems such as low birth rates and labor shortages.

Iran Update, November 13, 2024

November 13, 2024 - ISW Press

The damage caused by Israel’s October 25 strike targeting Iran’s ballistic missile production facilities combined with Iran’s decreased missile stockpile makes another Iranian large-scale ballistic missile attack targeting Israel unlikely.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 13, 2024

November 13, 2024 - ISW Press

The Kremlin is attempting to dictate the terms of any potential "peace" negotiations with Ukraine in advance of US President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, November 13, 2024

November 13, 2024 - ISW Press

The ROC government’s November 6 petition to disband the Chinese Unification Promotion Party and indictment of agents acting on behalf of the PRC illustrates the extensiveness of PRC infiltration and political warfare efforts in Taiwan.

Iran Update, November 12, 2024

November 12, 2024 - ISW Press

Newly-appointed Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz reaffirmed that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will continue its operation in Lebanon until it accomplishes its mission. Katz made these comments during a meeting with the IDF General Staff. Katz replaced Yoav Gallant as defense minister on November 8 and was formerly foreign minister. Katz affirmed that Israel would “continue to hit Hezbollah with full force” to capitalize on past successes like the killing of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and “realize the fruits of victory.”

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