Publications

Iran Update, March 20, 2025

March 20, 2025 - ISW Press

A senior official from Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba implicitly warned on March 20 that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would resume attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria if US forces do not withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2025. The official suggested that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would conduct “advanced and modern strikes” targeting US forces if US forces do not withdraw from Iraq by this date. The United States and Iraq agreed in September 2024 that hundreds of US-led international coalition forces would withdraw from Iraq by September 2025 and that remaining forces would withdraw by the end of 2026.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 20, 2025

March 20, 2025 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against Engels Airbase in Saratov Oblast on the night of March 19 to 20. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 20 that elements of Ukraine's Security Service (SBU), Unmanned Systems Forces, Special Operations Forces (SSO), and other Ukrainian forces struck the Engels Airbase in Saratov Oblast causing a fire, explosions, and a secondary detonation of ammunition in the vicinity of the airfield. Geolocated footage and other footage published on March 20 show an explosion and fire at the Engels Airbase.

Africa File, March 20, 2025: Qatari-Mediated Ceasefire in DRC; SAF Closes in on Khartoum; RSF Attacks Spread to South Sudan; Al Shabaab Ramadan Offensive; Tigray Simmers as Amhara Escalates; Russia’s Red Sea Efforts; Burkinabe Massacres

March 20, 2025 - ISW Press

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda agreed to a Qatari-mediated ceasefire, but fundamental disagreements remain an obstacle to long-term peace efforts.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19, 2025

March 19, 2025 - ISW Press

Russia and Ukraine have not formally announced the implementation of the temporary long-range strikes ceasefire. Ceasefires take time to negotiate, execute, and monitor and require both sides to agree to cease attacks on specified targets at a specific time and date. Ceasefires also require both sides to agree to mechanisms to monitor the ceasefire and to address allegations of violations.

Iran Update, March 19, 2025

March 19, 2025 - ISW Press

President Donald Trump’s March 5 letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei set a two-month deadline to reach a new nuclear deal, according to an Axios report. Iran is very unlikely to agree to a new deal on a two-month timetable given its current policies on negotiations.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18, 2025

March 18, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not accept the US-Ukrainian proposal for a temporary ceasefire along the frontline and reiterated his demands for a resolution to the war that amount to Ukrainian capitulation.

Iran Update, March 18, 2025

March 18, 2025 - ISW Press

Recent tit-for-tat sectarian killings and local support for pro-Assad insurgent cells will likely hamper Syrian interim government efforts to promote security and community reconciliation in coastal Syria.

Iran Update, March 17, 2025

March 17, 2025 - ISW Press

US Central Command (CENTCOM) has conducted a series of airstrikes targeting Houthi leaders and infrastructure in Yemen since March 15. The strikes are in response to the Houthi attack campaign on international shipping, which the Houthis launched in October 2023 in support of Hamas. The Houthis have conducted 174 attacks targeting US military vessels and 145 attacks targeting commercial vessels since October 2023. CENTCOM reportedly conducted around 50 strikes across 9 Yemeni provinces, according to Yemeni journalists.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17, 2025

March 17, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have been partially successful in holding the ceasefire proposal hostage as part of his efforts to extract preemptive concessions from US President Donald Trump in negotiations to end the war. Trump stated on March 17 that he plans to speak with Putin on March 18 and "want[s] to see if [he and Putin] can bring the war to an end." Trump added that he and Putin will "be talking about land," "power plants," and "dividing up certain assets."

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16, 2025

March 16, 2025 - ISW Press

US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz stated on March 16 that Ukraine will receive unspecified security guarantees in exchange for unspecified territorial concessions.

Pages